Monday Morning Cup of Coffee – How’s the MWC Race Shaping Up As We Near the Halfway Point?

So sit down and grab the beverage of your choice as I take you on a tour of Mountain West Men’s Basketball where many of the teams now have 8 conference games under their belts.

Boise State is off to a dream start at 12-1, 8-0 in the MWC. Their only  loss was their first game of the season to #11 Houston on the road and they have a non-conference road win at BYU. They have rolled through their MWC games (one near disaster with San Jose State).  Their conference schedule is quite unusual as their order of play is basically the preseason MWC poll backwards, which means they’ve played nothing but weaker teams.  They have a deep and talented roster anchored by pre-season MWC Player of the Year Derrick Alston.

Utah State began the season 1-3  (including a narrow loss at home to BYU) but have slowly been building momentum as they have fit new players into their rotation. They result is a 10-game winning streak which culminated with a pair of home wins over San Diego State this past weekend, moving their MWC record to 8-0. The Aggies have overcome the loss of all-time great Sam Merrill by building a punishing Top 10 in the country defensive team led by big Neemias Queta. Queta is a strong candidate for MWC Player of the Year.

Colorado State got started late due to COVID19 but now stand at 10-2, 7-1 in the MWC. The 7-1 represents their best start ever in conference play and includes a road win over San Diego State. Young, fast, fearless (and sometimes a bit careless) and the best 3-point shooting team in the MWC, they are being led by a pair of super sophomores Isaiah Stevens and David Roddy.

San Diego State has dropped a bit after a dream out of conference start that included wins over UCLA, Arizona State, and Saint Mary’s. Their senior and junior laden core looks to have maybe hit a bit of a peak while other teams are still improving. They took a hit when their best player Matt Mitchell injured his knee at Utah State. Mitchell is out for two weeks. The Aztecs, as pre-season conference favorites, weren’t given any favors by the MWC with a schedule front-loaded with mostly top half MWC teams including that tough roadie to Logan; the y are currently 3-3 in the MWC.  They now play a 10-game stretch of weaker teams that will allow them to vault back into the MWC race. Keep an eye on Lamont Butler, a freshman who excelled in the second game in Logan playing some of Mitchell’s minutes.

Nevada is currently 5-3 in the MWC with an inexperienced team. They had a pair of tough road losses at San Diego State, a pair of solid double-digit home wins over Fresno, and  an inexplicable loss at home to Air Force. Consistency has not been their hallmark to date but they are on an upward trajectory and feature a dynamic backcourt of Grant Sherfield (Wichita State transfer) and Desmond Cambridge (Brown transfer). Sherfield has proven to be a handful and positioned himself as a dark horse Player of the Year candidate. Nevada could surprise some teams as the season progresses.

UNLV started 1-4 with a very tough schedule (Maui Invitational losses to North Carolina, Alabama, Davidson – all) top 75 teams but looked to have righted the ship with a road win at Kansas State. Then a 33-day COVID shutdown. They did not look like a team that had been shut down in a pair of well-played losses on the road at CSU and they looked solid in a 20+ point win over New Mexico. They are led by a pair of dynamic scorers in juniors Brice Hamilton and David Jenkins but the real revelation is the emergence of senior big Mbacke Diong as a reliable inside scorer to go with his already effective inside defensive presence. Look for them to make noise as we head toward February and March.

Fresno State had major COVID19 issues that wiped out most of their out of conference schedule. They are 3-5 in the MWC as we stand. Three wins are by 20+ and 4 losses are by 15+,feasting on the lower teams and being rested on by the better teams. They are led by Orlando Robinson, a 7-foot sophomore who is a double-double waiting to happen. Lots of athletic transfers trying to mesh together in a very hospital style but they really struggle to shoot the ball from the perimeter. They might steal a game from one of the better teams. Might, not will.

Wyoming had a dream non-conference start under first-year Head Coach Jeff Linder, 6-1 with a road win at Oregon State. It was a bit of fool’s gold against weaker teams and the Cowboys have now lost 4 straight in the MWC and sit at 1-4. They are a very dangerous offensive team, led by the early leader in the clubhouse for MWC Freshman of the Year, Marcus Williams. They are not a good defensive team as they struggle to defend the interior. The sign of an inexperienced team suffering growing pains. They can’t be taken lightly because they can kill you from the perimeter. They’ll get better as the season progresses and will play teams tough in Laramie down the stretch.

Air Force is struggling to find their way in their first year under Joe Scott who inherited a weak roster. The Falcons have score two close conference wins, one at Nevada and the other at home to Wyoming. They have struggled all season with high number of turnovers which is an absolute killer to a team that plays methodical precision basketball and lacks the speed to stop opponents in transition. The win against Wyoming was a bit of a breakthrough as the Falcons only committed 8 turnovers. Keep an eye on them if that trend continues.

New Mexico has had their season ravaged by decisions associated with COVID19. They havent been shut dow. They’ve been forced to move their program out of state because the State of New Mexico will not allow them to practice or play. First Lubbock, TX  and now St. George, UT as their home base. 10 new players, tough circumstances, AND a head coach on the hot seat in Paul Weir and you have a formula for disaster. The Lobos are 0-8 in the MWC, all of the losses by double-digits and most in the 20+ range. They can run and they can jump, but they can’t shoot and they can’t defend. Something’s gotta give soon as they play next against…

San Jose State is pretty much in the same boat as New Mexico as they have been forced to re-locate their program to Phoenix, AZ due to restrictions placed by Santa Clara County, CA. Combine that with a poor basketball program to begin with and you have an 0-8 team that has lost most games by 30 and some by 40+ and 50+. They do have one elite level scorer in Richard Washington Jr but have also lost top returned Seneca Wallace via the transfer portal to LSU. They are no hopers.

So there’s your brief synopsis.

What Can We Expect Down the Road

If you know me I hate predictions.

But pre-season I did have San Diego State winning the conference, Utah State second, CSU third, and Boise State fourth.

I have been impressed by Boise State and how well all of their new players have integrated into a single unit. I thought originally that they’d struggle playing with only one ball but that has not been the case.

I think Utah State is better than expected as Queta has shown tremendous improvement and Head Coach Craig Smith has found a winning formula based upon rebounding and defense.

I’m not surprised by CSU’s play to date and the rubber is about to hit the road for the Rams as their next four games are on the road at Utah State and home to Boise State.

San Diego State has fallen off but are still an elite team who will most likely gather themselves over the next 10 games and still compete for a conference regular season championship.

Those are the four favorites headed into March. But don’t forget about Nevada and UNLV who both have the potential to play spoiler roles.