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60s Rammie

Joined: 9/2/14 Posts: 7853
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Trump is driving the Republican Party off a cliff.


The excerpt below is from an article written by Ronald Brownstein and appears in today's CNN on line edition. The far right Tea Party base composed disproportionately of older, rural, lower income, less educated whites centered on Midwestern and Southern states that has a disproportionate (compared with the total electorate) impact of the electoral college is dying out and the electorate that is replacing them Is trending toward greater diversity, education, and urbanization. The electoral college may tend to provide some cover to Republicans in the short term but it is not a sustainable solution for them.

"... Trump is still committing the GOP to a strategy of squeezing more advantage from groups that are shrinking. All of the major data sources on the electorate's composition -- from the Census Bureau to the exit polls to Catalist -- agree that the share of the vote cast by Trump's core group of whites without a college education has been declining by about two percentage points over each four-year presidential cycle. With turnout among minorities and college-educated whites surging, Catalist's preliminary analysis found those working-class whites, while still the electorate's largest single group, dropped fully five points as a share of the vote this year, compared to the last mid-term in 2014.
One thing no political strategy can reverse is the tide of generational replacement. As not only the World War II and Silent Generations, but also more baby boomers pass out of the electorate, the share of the eligible voting pool comprised of Generation X, millennials and Post-millennials is inexorably rising. The States of Change project forecasts those three generations -- which are much more racially diverse and college-educated than the generations they are replacing -- will continue growing to about two-thirds of eligible voters by 2024 and nearly three-fourths by 2028. More voters mean more consequences if Republicans can't soften the recoil from the party that younger voters displayed last month. "It's...a clear and present danger to any Republican policy maker who expects their name will be on a ballot after 2020," says Anderson. 'Donald Trump will run for reelection in 2020, and I am out of the business of saying he can't pull this off. But if you are a more conventional Republican...who has ambitions of being in political office for more than the next two years you ought to be gravely concerned about this.'

Posted: 12/04/2018 at 2:14PM



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   Trump is driving the Republican Party off a cliff. -- 60s Rammie 12/04/2018 2:14PM
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