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mpcsu

Joined: 11/22/14 Posts: 1641
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The spikes are outpacing the testing increases!


Hospitalizations is the key metric. Look at Florida and Texas.

Please stop, you are not helping end this thing. Should we really have to beg adults to use safe commonsense? It's so absurd.

"So how can we tell whether the increase in cases is an accurate indication of worsening outbreaks or an artifact of expanded testing? Rising COVID-19 hospitalizations are suggestive of worsening outbreaks, but if a state is doing enough tests to discover mild or pre-symptomatic cases, hospitalizations may lag behind positive tests by days or weeks.

There’s a simple way to get closer to a definitive answer about which case count numbers indicate new or worsening hotpots. The percent-positive rate shows us how many tests come back positive, out of all tests performed. This rate can help us interpret case count increases:

If case counts go up, but the percent-positive rate goes down or holds steady, the rise in cases can be partially explained by the increase in testing.

If case counts and the percent-positive rate both go up, the increase cannot be explained entirely by an increase in testing. If case counts and the percent-positive rate both go up, but testing decreases or holds steady, the rise in cases could indicate new outbreaks of the virus in communities.



[Post edited by mpcsu at 06/27/2020 11:16AM]

(In response to this post by DaDazio)

Link: Useful context


Posted: 06/27/2020 at 11:03AM



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